Project Description

This proposal deals the forecast of extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS; wind speed more than 46 ms-1) activity over the North Indian Ocean. Recent study by Singh et al., (2021) suggested that in the past 30 years the maximum intensity and the life cycle of the land-falling ESCS has been increased. Hence, it is important and necessary to increase the prediction length of ESCS from 5 to 7 days in atmospheric numerical modeling systems. Keeping all this in view, the present proposal based on several numerical experiments such as selection of domain resolutions, model initial conditions, parameterization of air-sea interaction & microphysics processes, and data assimilation components is an effort to improve the accuracy of near-real time ESCS for early warning and disaster management in order to provide better forecast warnings thereby saving life and property.