Project Description

Due to increasing intense tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea (AS) the chances of increased severe economic losses and lives because of strong wind, heavy rainfall, landslides, and associated storm surges. A study by Murakami et al., (2017) suggested that intense TCs over the AS is increasing in a warming climate.

The outcome of the proposed study is to improve the quality of the forecast of severe TCs over the AS in a Gray zone scale using an atmospheric and oceanic modeling system. The expected results of the proposal are related to improvement in maximum intensity and structure of the severe cyclones and could be useful to minimize the loss of property and life in a warming climate.

The results will provide the feasible model resolution in the forecast of track, intensity and structure in Gray zone. The horizontal resolution is not sufficient to capture the structure and intensity of the severe TCs in the inner core region, this gap can be fulfil by using physical parameterization schemes.